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Workshop

“Assessment and mitigation of emerging risks”

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Workshop organized on
Friday, December 11^th, 2009 -  from 9.30 am to 6.00 pm
At the
Institut Louis Bachelier, Palais Brongniart, 28 Place de la Bourse, 75002 Paris.

 

Organized by the AXA Chair on Large Risks in Insurance
(Ecole Polytechnique, ENSAE, Paris Dauphine)

Through the help of:

Johanna Etner (Université Paris 5), Meglena Jeleva (Université du Maine), Stéphane Rossignol

(Université Paris 5), Jean-Marc Tallon (Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1)

And, with the support of the AXA Research Fund

 

Participation is free but registration is mandatory as the number of seats is limited.

To register or for more details, please contact:

 

contact@arf-events.org

Justine Riboud:

+33 (0)1.53.70.72.98

 

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Agenda :

 

Emerging risks are partly characterized by a lack of information concerning their probability of occurrence as well as their consequences. Indeed, in contrast with standard risks (such as automobile risks) whose characteristics can be precisely estimated given the large amount of available data, emerging risks, as environmental risks resulting from global warming, GMO’s and epidemics, although identified, have not been documented in a way that allows for instance standard actuarial calculus.  Thus, the analysis of decision making in presence of such risks calls for a framework that does not exclusively rely on probabilistic tools.

This workshop aims at creating some interaction (or at least mutual knowledge) among, on the one hand, economists who have developed tools allowing the study of poorly understood risk in decision theory and, on the other hand, scientists working in applied fields (here essentially health and climate change) who have developed a practical way of looking at emerging risks. 

 

9.30 am – 10.00 am: Welcome

 

10.00 am – 10.50 am: Developments in individual decision making theory under uncertainty.

                        By Sujoy Mukerji, Department of Economics, Oxford University

 

10.50 am – 11.40 am: Public decisions in situations of uncertainty.

By Reza Lahidji, HEC

 

11.40 am – 12.10 pm: Break

 

12.10 pm – 1 pm: Emerging risks: an actuarial perspective.

               By Arthur Charpentier, Faculté des Sciences Economiques, Université Rennes 1

 

1 pm – 2.10 pm: Lunch

 

2.10 pm - 3.00 pm: Emerging Risks, Early detection of Emerging Liabilities?

                       By Jean-Noël Guye, AXA risk management

 

3.00 pm – 3.50 pm: Bias and Uncertainty: Cost benefits Analysis for Air Pollution and Lead.

By Joel Schwartz, Department of Environmental Health, Harvard University  

 

3.50 pm – 4.20 pm: Break

 

4.20 pm – 5.10 pm: New faces of Public Health risks and new figures of uncertainties.

                       By William Dab, CNAM (Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers)

 

5.10 pm – 5.50 pm: Assessing and predicting hurricane risk in the face of climate change uncertainties.

                       By James Elsner, Department of Geography, Florida State University